A journal of questionable quality

Wednesday, February 02, 2011


This is what makes a cyclone:
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0633 UTC 02/02/2011 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi Identifier: 14U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 17.1S Longitude: 148.1E Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km] Movement Towards: west southwest [248 deg] Speed of Movement: 19 knots [35 km/h] Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots [205 km/h] Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots [285 km/h] Central Pressure: 930 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 190 nm [350 km] Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 240 nm [445 km] Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 170 nm [315 km] Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm [260 km] Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km] Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km] Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km] Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km] Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm [70 km] Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km] Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/6HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km] Storm Depth: Deep FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa +12: 02/1800: 18.6S 144.5E: 045 [085]: 085 [155]: 951 +24: 03/0600: 19.9S 141.3E: 075 [140]: 045 [085]: 984 +36: 03/1800: 21.1S 138.6E: 110 [205]: 030 [055]: 992 +48: 04/0600: 22.1S 136.4E: 140 [260]: 025 [045]: 996 +60: 04/1800: 23.0S 134.7E: 185 [345]: 025 [045]: 996 +72: 05/0600: 23.7S 133.9E: 230 [425]: 025 [045]: 996 REMARKS: The latest imagery shows Yasi as very symmetric showing a well defined eye with surrounding deep convection. Dvorak intensity: Eye pattern white surround [6.0] with OW/W [0.5] eye adjustment giving DT=6.5, adj. MET=6.0. FT/CI=6.5. Max winds estimated at 110 knots [205 km/h] [AMSU/SATCON estimates at 125kn [1min]]. Surface observations indicate hurricane force winds extend about 50 nm [95 km] to the southwest of the track. At 0600UTC [16:00EST] Yasi was just 120nm from the coast and with a steady 19 knot WSW movement, landfall is estimated at about 1300UTC [23:00EST] with the intensity maintained at category 5. The combination of being intense, larger than normal [gales extending about 250 nm [460 km] to the south] having 19 knot motion and with high tides expected at 21:00EST there is a significant risk of very dangerous storm tides south of the track. Although the mountain ranges will greatly weaken the cyclone after landfall very strong downslope winds may extend well north of the track on the seaward side of the hills. Cyclone intensity is maintained inland beyond 24 hours although gales later Thursday afternoon will rely upon mixing of winds aloft south of the track. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/1300 UTC by Brisbane TCWC.

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